Karim Elgendy, Executive Director at the Carboun Institute and Associate Fellow at Chatham House.

In September 2024, nine northern Mediterranean countries agreed to collaborate on renewable energy to make the northern Mediterranean a renewable energy hub. The agreement followed commitments from a majority of Mediterranean countries to triple their renewable energy capacity by 2030. It also coincided with growing grassroots momentum for accelerating renewable energy adoption on both sides of the Mediterranean basin, a move that would not only mitigate climate change but could also create new economic opportunities, improve energy security, and enhance regional cooperation.

The collaborative approach offers substantial advantages over individual efforts – from cost reduction and greater investment attraction to the creation of a robust green job market and enhanced energy security through cross-border power grids.

The global momentum for renewable energy expansion crystallized at COP28 in 2023, when nations collectively committed to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030 as part of their response to the Global Stocktake of the Paris Agreement. This commitment was further reinforced by 130 nations, including most Mediterranean countries, joining the Global Renewables and Energy Efficiency Pledge. While current global trajectories suggest a 2.5-fold increase in renewable energy capacity by 2030 compared to 2020 levels, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), stronger policy support and accelerated deployment across all sectors will be crucial to achieve the tripling target and align with the 1.5°C goal.

From vision to reality

According to 2022 data, the installed renewable power capacity in Mediterranean countries was estimated at 292,965 MW, representing 43.2% of total generation capacity. Northern Mediterranean countries such as Spain, Turkey, Greece, and the West Balkans have a higher share of renewables than those in the southern Mediterranean. They also outperform in terms of renewable energy capacity per capita.

Some countries have experienced significant growth over the last decade in expanding their renewable energy portfolios, with more pronounced growth in the Eastern Mediterranean countries such as Israel, Cyprus, Turkey, and Greece. These countries experienced faster growth in both renewable generation capacity and share of total capacity between 2013 and 2022, compared to Western Mediterranean countries such as Morocco, Spain, France, and Italy.

However, despite this growth, the Mediterranean region still has a long way to go to fully harness its renewable energy potential, especially in the Levant and North Africa. Many countries have yet to tap into their vast solar and wind resources, and there is significant room for growth. The preferred renewable technologies also vary across the region – the Balkan countries rely heavily on hydropower due to their mountainous geography and water resources, while the southern Mediterranean countries have significant potential for solar PV and wind energy given their desert climates and vast land areas.

Shared goals, shared future

The Mediterranean basin represents a mix of developed and developing economies. Its total population of half a billion people has an average GDP per capita that is just 25% higher than the global average. It also includes a combination of energy producers and consumers, with countries like Algeria and Libya being energy exporters, while others such as France, Italy, and Spain being significant energy consumers.

According to analysis by Climate Analytics, in order to align with the 1.5°C target set in the Paris Agreement, global renewable capacity needs to grow to 11.5 TW by 2030, which is 3.4 times higher than 2022 levels. It also points out that different regions will need to scale renewables at different rates relative to their current capacity, the pace of fossil phase-out, and electricity demand growth. The Middle East and North Africa region, for example, will need to grow its renewable energy capacity 11.8 times by 2030 under this scenario, while OECD countries, including all European countries north of the Mediterranean Sea, must collectively expand their capacity by 3.1 times.

To establish a preliminary collective target for the heterogenous region, the regional capacity increase targets proposed above were considered for countries of the southern and northern shores of the Mediterranean respectively. Based on these growth rates, the resultant renewable energy capacity target for the Mediterranean by 2030 is exceeds 1 Terawatt (1,065,757 MW) representing a 3.6 times the capacity of 2022.

This collective renewable energy target for the Mediterranean would require an annual growth rate of 97 GW, based on a 2022 starting line. To put this into perspective, this would be roughly equivalent to adding the total generation capacity of Turkey or Spain every year until 2030.

As challenging as these estimates may appear, they are within reach if countries implement and augment their current plans. If one considers the pipeline of solar, wind, and hydropower projects in the region, including announced, planned, or under-construction projects, the combination of current generation capacity and prospective capacity would result in a generation capacity of 779,217 MW, which is 2.66 times the current capacity.

Put another way, if all the prospective solar, wind, and hydro capacity comes online by 2030, the combined generation capacity would already achieved 73% of the capacity required to meet the collective regional goal of 1 Terrawatt. However, there are wide regional variations in aspirations and planned projects. Under their current plans, some countries like Greece, Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Algeria, and Morocco would significantly exceed three times their current renewables capacity, while others, including some of the region's largest energy consumers like France, Italy, Turkey, and Israel would fall short under their current plans, underscoring the need for these nations to ramp up their renewable energy ambitions and help the region surpass the collective goal.

Creating shared prosperity

The renewable energy transition presents distinct economic opportunities across the Mediterranean basin, reflecting the region's diverse industrial capabilities and natural resources. According to the IEA's Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario, the sector could create 30 million new clean energy jobs by 2030. The transition's economic impact is already evident, with declining costs making clean energy increasingly competitive with fossil fuels and the sector accounting for 10% of global GDP growth ($320 billion) in 2023.

The northern Mediterranean countries can leverage their existing industrial strengths. France, Italy, and Spain are well-positioned to become leaders in manufacturing high-value components for renewable technologies, from solar PV and wind turbines to energy storage systems. Their extensive coastlines, particularly in France and Greece, offer significant potential for offshore wind development. These countries can also capitalize on their automotive expertise to develop electric vehicle and battery production hubs, serving both domestic and export markets.

The southern Mediterranean presents complementary opportunities. Countries like Morocco, Egypt, and Algeria can harness their vast desert areas for utility-scale solar projects, potentially exporting clean energy to Europe through interconnectors, such as Elmed between Tunisia and Italy. Tunisia and Egypt's abundant resources make them ideal for green hydrogen production. Water-scarce countries can power desalination plants with renewable energy, while countries with industrial capacity like Egypt and Morocco can become manufacturing hubs for solar PV panels and wind components.

Both shores can benefit from increased energy interconnection, with northern countries exporting technology and expertise while southern countries export clean energy. The UAE's $30 billion Alterra fund offers southern Mediterranean countries access to essential funding and technical support, while Islamic finance instruments like green sukuk can help achieve the required expansion in renewable capacity.

The transition is particularly crucial for the Mediterranean region, which faces disproportionate climate change impacts due to its reliance on climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture and tourism. With potential climate damages estimated between $1.7 trillion and $3.1 trillion annually by 2050, renewable energy emerges as a key risk mitigation strategy. It offers a path to economic diversification, enhanced energy security, and sustainable development, positioning the region at the forefront of the global shift towards a resilient economic model.

Accelerating clean energy progress

To achieve the ambitious goal of tripling renewable energy capacity, four critical enablers must be prioritized. First, long-term political commitment is essential – while most Mediterranean countries have signed the Global Renewables and Energy Efficiency Pledge, their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) must align with this target through clear national strategies and legislation.

Second, supportive policies and infrastructure development are crucial. Countries must implement comprehensive frameworks that attract investment through streamlined permitting, financial incentives, and grid modernization. According to the Mediterranean Masterplan 2022, major investments in transmission infrastructure, including High-Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) technologies, are needed to integrate networks across both shores.

Third, access to finance must be enhanced through innovative mechanisms like public-private partnerships and green bonds. Finally, regional cooperation must be strengthened through existing frameworks such as the Union for the Mediterranean (UfM) and Mediterranean Energy Regulators (MEDREG). This includes fostering north-south partnerships, knowledge sharing, and joint infrastructure projects that can accelerate the renewable energy transition across the region.

The time is now

The Mediterranean region stands at a pivotal moment in its energy transition journey. By embracing the global goal of tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030, countries can simultaneously combat climate change and unlock substantial economic benefits – from reducing energy import dependence to creating new jobs and attracting investments in emerging industries.

Success will require coordinated action from all stakeholders: governments creating enabling policies and infrastructure, the private sector driving innovation and capital mobilization, and citizens embracing clean energy solutions. While the challenges are significant, the Mediterranean's renewable resources and industrial capabilities position it to lead in the global energy transition, creating a more sustainable and prosperous future for its half a billion citizens.

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The High-Level Champions

The UN Climate Change High-Level Champions, supported by the Climate Champions Team, work to bridge national government efforts with the leadership of businesses, investors, cities, and civil society to accelerate climate action. A key focus is scaling renewable energy – ensuring the global commitment to triple capacity by 2030 translates into investable policies, strong public-private collaboration, and resilient energy systems.

The TeraMed initiative is a regional response to this global goal, aligning governments and the private sector to deliver 1 terawatt of renewable energy capacity across the Mediterranean by 2030. It highlights how cross-sector collaboration can unlock investment, drive green industry, and enhance energy security.

Commenting on the initiative, Nigar Arpadarai, UN Climate Change High-Level Champion for COP29, stated at COP29:

“Public-private collaboration can deliver better energy policy to deliver on the energy transitions through implementable and investable NDCs and adaptation plans that can deliver change, investment, development, and clean energy for all. This joint vision and common target for the Mediterranean will help to provide clarity, reduce uncertainty and attract investment to support the next generation of NDCs and ensure they’re aligned with Sustainable Development Goals, keeping people and nature at the heart of these transitions.”

Learn more about the High-Level Champions’ work on energy transition here.